The Golden Globes: Who Will Win (And Who Should Win)

The Golden Globes are awarded every January by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and it’s considered an important stepping stone in achieving Oscar buzz– win the Golden Globe, increase your chances at taking home an Academy Award. Tonight’s ceremony, hosted by Ricky Gervais, will likely serve as a precursor to some degree for what we will see come February 26th. I have provided within a helpful guide for who will likely win at tonight’s show, and perhaps more importantly, who deserves to win. (I’ll even throw in TV predictions at the end.)

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA):
What should win:
Hugo, Scorsese’s most passionate and personal film to date, full of tremendous moments and the best use of 3D a live-action film has seen or is likely to see for some time.
What will win: The Descendants, Alexander Payne’s well-received family drama, which boasts a terrific script, a star at the top of his game, and some laughs sprinkled nicely throughout the heavy subject matter.

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY):
What should win:
Either 50/50 or Midnight in Paris, both of which made me laugh the hardest and had plenty of heart.
What will win: The Artist, the front-runner for the Oscar, and outside of Midnight in Paris, the only film likely to score an Oscar nomination in this category. Folks are really taken by this silent film, which is slight in my opinion but charming.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Who should win:
Martin Scorsese, by a landslide.
Who will win: While conventional wisdom says Michel Hazanavicius takes home the Globe, I’d be surprised if the Hollywood Foreign Press doesn’t reward Hugo at all, and Best Director is the most logical runner-up prize if it doesn’t surprise people and steal Best Picture. I think Scorsese takes it.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA):
Who should win:
Since Michael Shannon wasn’t nominated, a close race between George Clooney and Brad Pitt for who is most deserving.
Who will win: A close race between George Clooney and Brad Pitt. Brad Pitt might win based on the principle of wanting to reward Moneyball, but since Clooney’s films have been doubly nominated, and the HFPA is in love with him, he edges Pitt out and wins the Globe.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY):
Who should win:
Brendan Gleeson carries The Guard– he is the film, and his performance is terrific.
Who will win: Jean Dujardin has zero chance of losing this award. He is charming with great comedic timing in The Artist.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA):
Who should win:
Tilda Swinton, whose work isn’t acknowledged enough frankly, and who gives one of the bravest performances of the year in We Need To Talk About Kevin. Rooney Mara would be a close second for her equally brave work in Dragon Tattoo.
Who will win: Meryl Streep. People love Meryl Streep, and since she’s so gracious, people love giving her awards every year. There’s an off-chance Viola Davis could play spoiler… but if I was betting, I’d put all my chips on Streep.

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY):
Who should win:
Michelle Williams, who captures Marilyn Monroe beautifully and is the most likely Oscar candidate of this group of nominees as a result.
Who will win: Michelle Williams, for reasons stated above.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Who should win:
Christopher Plummer, for giving the performance of a lifetime in Beginners.
Who will win: Christopher Plummer. He’s got a long and illustrious career, giving a performance equally funny and sad, and perhaps most importantly, as we saw Thursday night at the Critics Choice awards, he gives one hell of an acceptance speech.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Who should win:
Shailene Woodley holds her own against Clooney in The Descendants, giving an outstanding performance for her age. Chastain and Bejo also steal their respective films.
Who will win: Octavia Spencer, who wasn’t personally the stand-out of The Help to me, but who gives a good performance and has a great “character actor getting the role of a lifetime” storyline that makes voters feel good about choosing her.

BEST SCREENPLAY:
Who should win:
Woody Allen, for his playful, nostalgic, and romantic script for Midnight in Paris.
Who will win: Woody Allen. The HFPA loves him, and he deserves the victory.

BEST FOREIGN FILM:
Who should win:
I’m seeing A Separation this MLK weekend, but sadly haven’t seen the rest of these.
Who will win: A Separation has cleaned up every award known to man, but I wouldn’t put it past the HFPA, who loves sucking up to big stars, to give it to Angelina Jolie for In The Land of Blood and Honey. I wouldn’t bet against A Separation, but don’t be surprised if Angie plays spoiler.

BEST SONG:
Who should win:
None of these– it should go to a song from The Muppets, which disgustingly wasn’t nominated because Bret MacKenzie isn’t as big a star as the nominees here.
Who will win: give it to the biggest star in the pool– either Elton John for Gnomeo and Juliet or Madonna for her W.E. I’d say Madonna, though Elton John is probably the safer bet.

BEST SCORE:
Who should win:
War Horse, for its soaring score by John Williams.
Who will win: The Artist, which has non-stop music from beginning to end and is the front-runner for many awards. If anyone plays spoiler here, it’s Trent Reznor for Dragon Tattoo.

And now, for some TV awards… I don’t get to watch much TV, so I’ll say upfront I’m rooting for Game of Thrones, Peter Dinklage, Bryan Cranston, and Amy Poehler. Below are who I believe will win tonight:

BEST DRAMA:
Homeland (possible spoiler: Boardwalk Empire, with its Martin Scorsese star power)

BEST COMEDY:
Modern Family

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA):
Kelsey Grammer

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA):
Claire Danes

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY):
Matt LeBlanc

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY):
Zooey Deschanel

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Peter Dinklage

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jessica Lange (possible spoiler: Dame Maggie Smith)

BEST MINISERIES/MOVIE:
Downton Abbey

BEST ACTOR (MINISERIES/MOVIE):
Idris Elba

BEST ACTRESS (MINISERIES/MOVIE):
Kate Winslet

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~ by russellhainline on January 15, 2012.

3 Responses to “The Golden Globes: Who Will Win (And Who Should Win)”

  1. Excellent picks. I agree with most of them. But Deschanel?!?! It HAS to be Poehler.

  2. Wow, man, you did great, only missing on Deschanel. Well done.

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