The Password is Swordfish

Wanna win your Academy Award pool? I’ve gotten at least 75% the last five years. I’ll give you the rundown on the sure things, the toss-ups, and the dark horses that I think will pull it off. Read on to get my predictions.

Best Picture- It’s going to come down to Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker. Avatar isn’t a bad guess… but momentum seems to have swung in the direction of The Hurt Locker. Still, with the new voting system, this one is reeeeeeeally hard to guess. Have enough people seen The Hurt Locker? Yeesh. I’m going to side with The Hurt Locker crowd, since Avatar’s total shutout at Producer, Director, and Writer’s Guild awards doesn’t bode too well for the Academy chances, yet with the different voting system… I’ll go Hurt Locker. But I’m not penning it in.

Best Director- Unlike Best Picture, even if Avatar wins, I feel that Kathryn Bigelow is pretty much a lock. Vote with confidence.

Best Actor- Jeff Bridges. Lock. The only possible spoiler would be Jeremy Renner if The Hurt Locker looks like it will sweep. But… it won’t. Bridges is way overdue.

Best Actress- TIGHT race. Streep deserves it in my opinion. Bullock looks likely to win, however… it’s a big hit, it got a Best Pic nod, and the media coverage of her has been… well, golden. Streep has far too many nominations without wins, and she’s very well-liked. However, if you’re putting money down, go with Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor- Christoph Waltz. He won’t lose.

Best Supporting Actress- Mo’Nique. If only one Up In The Air girl was nominated, it might be closer… and Anna Kendrick is still the outside shot upset choice. If she wins, I wouldn’t be stunned… but Mo’Nique not only deserves it, she’ll win it.

Best Adapted Screenplay- Up In The Air. It’ll probably be this film’s only win. Lock it in.

Best Original Screenplay- Another really tight race. Tarantino could be looking at a win here… but I can’t envision a scenario in which The Hurt Locker loses this. Quite often, the Best Picture winner also wins Best Screenplay. The only time it doesn’t win Best Screenplay is if some spectacle wins… but if Avatar wins, I still see The Hurt Locker getting accolades here. If Tarantino wins, you’ll kick yourself, and he’ll be the popular choice by most people filling out pools. This is a good place to separate yourself from the pack. Pick The Hurt Locker.

Best Editing- Avatar, in the first of a few technical categories it will win. The Hurt Locker will have a good shot at this, but Avatar is the safest bet.

Best Cinematography- There’s an outside chance that The White Ribbon will steal an upset here, but Avatar is the most likely winner. It’s gorgeous.

Best Art Direction- Avatar. An easy pick.

Best Sound Mixing and Sound Editing- Give it to Avatar for editing, and to The Hurt Locker for mixing.

Best Costume Design- The Young Victoria. Boy oh boy does the Academy LOVE their wigs and corsets. I’d put this one in pen.

Best Score- Up. Pen.

Best Foreign Language Film- The White Ribbon is the popular choice… but go with The Prophet from France, which is coming out in theaters now and has a ton of really passionate supporters, saying it’s a true great epic. I’m calling upset here.

Best Documentary- The Cove. Food Inc. is more talked about, but The Cove has the momentum.

Best Animated Feature- Up. Pen.

Best Visual Effects- Are you kidding? Avatar.

Best Makeup- This is a tough one to call. Star Trek is the flashiest, and it’s very popular, so go with this.

Best Song- Sorry, Disney. There is zero chance that The Weary Kind loses this.

Best Animated Short- A Matter of Loaf and Death, French Roast, and Lady and the Reaper are my favorites in a tight battle. While Lady and the Reaper is my personal favorite, and A Matter of Loaf and Death has the Wallace and Gromit Oscar-winning pedigree, French Roast has that artistic whimsy that voters would think is worthy. Plus, since they showed last year that they’re all for voting for the most artistic choice… I’m gonna go far out on a limb and predict French Roast scores the win. But it’s anyone’s guess.

Best Short- The Door. This is the most popular choice– go with the crowd.

Best Documentary Short- The Last Truck. It’s a very timely subject, and supposedly great.

~ by russellhainline on March 6, 2010.

Posted in Film Reviews