The Password is Swordfish

It’s usually pretty easy to predict at least three of the five nominated films in any given category. Four is dicier, five less likely still. However, having seen nearly every film on this list, I feel fairly confident in my ability to get the overwhelming majority right. I won’t be going too far off into left field, nor will I let my personal biases get in the way of my selections (at least, I’ll do my best not to). I will provide the five predicted nominees, putting an asterisk by anything which I consider to be a stone-cold lock for a nomination. If a stone-cold lock doesn’t get a nomination, then color me and the rest of the pundits out there baffled. I will also provide an “upset special,” for the potential nominee that I feel may miss the cut but has the opportunity to spoil it for one of my selections. Without further ado, the predicted nominees for the major (and some of the minor) Oscar categories.

Best Picture:
*Black Swan
*The Fighter
*Inception
*The Kids Are All Right
*The King’s Speech
*The Social Network
The Town
*Toy Story 3
*True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Upset special: 127 Hours

Best Actor:
*Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
*Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
*Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
*James Franco, 127 Hours
Upset special: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress:
*Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
*Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
*Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
*Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Upset special: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Best Supporting Actor:
*Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
*Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
*Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Upset special: John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
*Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Upset special: Barbara Hershey and/or Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
The Coen Brothers, True Grit
*David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
*Christopher Nolan, Inception
Upset special: David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Original Screenplay:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
*The Kids Are All Right
*The King’s Speech
Upset special: Another Year

Best Adapted Screenplay:
127 Hours
*The Social Network
*True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
Upset special: The Town

Best Editing:
127 Hours
*Black Swan
*Inception
The King’s Speech
*The Social Network
Upset special: True Grit

Best Cinematography:
127 Hours
*Black Swan
*Inception
*The Social Network
*True Grit
Upset special: The King’s Speech

Best Art Direction:
Alice In Wonderland
*Black Swan
The King’s Speech
*Inception
True Grit
Upset special: Shutter Island

Best Sound Mixing:
127 Hours
Black Swan
*Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Upset special: Tron: Legacy

Best Sound Editing:
How to Train Your Dragon
*Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Upset special: 127 Hours

Best Costume Design:
*Alice in Wonderland
*Black Swan
The King’s Speech
Made in Dagenham
The Tempest
Upset special: True Grit

Best Original Score:
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
*Inception
*The King’s Speech
*The Social Network
Upset special: 127 Hours

Best Original Song:
*”I See The Light”, Tangled
“If I Rise”, 127 Hours
*”Shine”, Waiting For Superman
*”We Belong Together”, Toy Story 3
*”You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me Yet”, Burlesque
Upset special: another of the songs from Tangled

Best Visual Effects:
Alice in Wonderland
*Inception
Tron: Legacy
Spoiler alert: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Best Makeup:
*Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolfman
Upset special: The Fighter

Best Animated Feature:
*How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
*Toy Story 3
Upset special: Despicable Me

Best Feature-Length Documentary:
Client 9
*Inside Job
Restrepo
*The Tillman Story
*Waiting For Superman
Upset special: Exit Through the Gift Shop

NOTES:
1. Hailee Steinfeld has been pushed as a Supporting Actress, but with the BAFTA nominations having her as a lead, it shows a collective group of people consider for a lead. Does this mean she gets one or the other, or maybe she’s left off entirely? It’s hard to say.
2. Sound awards are almost a complete crap shoot outside of the locks. Same for documentaries.
3. If my bias is showing anywhere, it’s with 127 Hours. I think even though it will get left out of Best Picture consideration (though I hope it is nominated), the voters see the technological prowess and the artfulness in the film’s execution. Only time will tell.
4. Okay, there might be some bias with Best Supporting Actress as well. Jacki Weaver has received more wins and critical acclaim for Animal Kingdom, but conventional logic says Mila Kunis is getting the nom. Three reasons why I don’t think she’d get it: 1. Barbara Hershey got the BAFTA nom over her. 2. I think the Academy will see Weaver and Hershey as older vet actresses who have put their time in, whereas Kunis before 2010 was predominantly known as a sitcom actress. 3. Portman, Hershey, and Cassel all have more intense performances than Kunis in Black Swan. Folks might think she’s merely playing a version of herself, whereas the others sink into their characters.

~ by russellhainline on January 23, 2011.

Posted in Listmania, The Thoughts of Russell Hainline
Tags: 127 Hours, 82nd Academy Awards, A.R. Rahman, Academy Award nominations 2011, Academy Awards 2011, Alexandre Desplat, Alice in Wonderland, Amy Adams, Andrew Garfield, Animal Kingdom, Annette Bening, Another Year, BAFTA, Barbara Hershey, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature, Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Director, Best Editing, Best Feature-Length Documentary, Best Makeup, Best Original Score, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Song, Best Picture, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Visual Effects, Black Swan, Blue Valentine, Burlesque, Christian Bale, Christopher Nolan, Client 9, Colin Firth, Danny Elfman, Darren Aronofsky, David Fincher, David O. Russell, Despicable Me, Diane Warren, Exit Through The Gift Shop, Geoffrey Rush, Get Low, Hailee Steinfeld, Hans Zimmer, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Helena Bonham Carter, How To Train Your Dragon, I See The Light, If I Rise, Inception, Inside Job, Jacki Weaver, James Franco, Jeff Bridges, Jennifer Lawrence, Jeremy Renner, Jesse Eisenberg, Joel and Ethan Coen, John Hawkes, John Powell, Julianne Moore, Made in Dagenham, Mark Ruffalo, Melissa Leo, Mila Kunis, Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Oscar nominations 2011, Oscar Predictions, Oscar predictions 2011, Oscars 2011, Rabbit Hole, Restrepo, Robert Duvall, Roderick Jaynes, Ryan Gosling, Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World, Shine, Shutter Island, Tangled, The Coen Brothers, The Fighter, The Illusionist, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, The Tempest, The Tillman Story, The Town, The Wolfman, Tom Hooper, Toy Story 3, Trent Reznor, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, Upset special, Vincent Cassel, Waiting For Superman, We Belong Together, Winter's Bone, You Haven't Seen The Last of Me Yet