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Need Help in Your Oscar Pools? Here’s My Academy Award Predictions

No explanations, just straight knowledge. I don’t think I’ve ever gotten lower than 65%, and I’m usually closer to 70-75%, which should hopefully win you your pool. If you use this and win, feel free to send me a percentage of your winnings– I take cash and Paypal. Anyhow, the picks of every single category: what will win, what should win, and possible upsets after the jump.

Best Picture:
What Will Win: The King’s Speech
What Should Win: Toy Story 3
Possible Upset: The Social Network

Best Director:
What Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
What Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Possible Upset: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
(If you see Geoffrey Rush or Helena Bonham Carter win, call your office and switch to Hooper, since it will signify a clean sweep for TKS.)

Best Actor:
What Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
What Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours
Possible Upset: None

Best Actress:
What Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
What Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Possible Upset: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
If you are of the mindset that Portman has overexposed herself and/or the Academy will feel Bening is due, Bening is a perfectly acceptable choice. I favor Portman to Bening 55/45– it’s probably very close.

Best Supporting Actor:
What Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
What Should Win: John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Possible Upset: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
This award is usually the first major award given… and if Rush pulls this off, you’re in for a long night of The King’s Speech winning basically everything it’s nominated for.

Best Supporting Actress:
What Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
What Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Possible Upset: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
More like I’m picking the upset here… but I think Leo (the favorite) and Adams will split votes, and with the sheer amount of screen time Steinfeld got, mixed with the Academy wanting to reward True Grit with a major Oscar, should get her the trophy. However, pundits will say Leo is the safer bet– side with me only if you want to take the gamble.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What Will Win: The Social Network
What Should Win: The Social Network
Possible Upset: None

Best Original Screenplay:
What Will Win: The King’s Speech
What Should Win: The King’s Speech
Possible Upset: None

Best Foreign Film:
What Will Win: In A Better World
What Should Win: ? (saw none of the nominees)
Possible Upset: Biutiful
Though Biutiful is the most well-known stateside because of the ads, my guess is it’s too intensely depressing for most voters to take the time to sit through it. In A Better World is dramatic too, but it tackles the same kind of issues that I think the Academy votes for here. I often get this category wrong by picking the “best known” film in America… so here I’m trying to break my habit.

Best Animated Feature Film:
What Will Win: Toy Story 3
What Should Win: Toy Story 3
Possible Upset: None

Best Documentary Feature:
What Will Win: Inside Job
What Should Win: Exit Through The Gift Shop
Possible Upset: Exit Through The Gift Shop
Inside Job is the safe bet, especially in light of the Academy banning Banksy from attending unless he is unmasked. If a masked Banksy would be allowed to arrive, I bet more people would’ve voted for ETTGS out of curiosity to see what happened.

Best Art Direction:
What Will Win: The King’s Speech
What Should Win: Inception
Possible Upset: Alice in Wonderland
Alice and Inception are showier, but The King’s Speech should carry this based on the gorgeous look of the film and the general love the film will be getting.

Best Cinematography:
What Will Win: True Grit
What Should Win: True Grit
Possible Upset: Black Swan
PLEASE LET ROGER DEAKINS FINALLY WIN.

Best Costume Design:
What Will Win: Alice In Wonderland
What Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
Possible Upset: The King’s Speech
Not enough corsets and wigs for the royalty flick to win this year. Alice is showier, and while I hated it, the costumes were great.

Best Sound Design and Sound Editing:
What Will Win Both: Inception
What Should Win Both: Inception
Possible Upsets: None
I think Inception will sweep any “effects” categories at the Oscars this year.

Best Editing:
What Will Win: The Social Network
What Should Win: 127 Hours
Possible Upset: Black Swan
Without Inception in this category, and The Social Network winning the Eddie, this is pretty damn close to a lock.

Best Visual Effects:
What Will Win: Inception
What Should Win: Inception
Possible Upset: None

Best Score:
What Will Win: The Social Network
What Should Win: The Social Network
Possible Upset: The King’s Speech
Again, if King’s Speech wins here, it may mean a sweep is in order. Reznor’s speech at the Globes was sweet and grateful, and it’s an amazing score. Pretty safe bet.

Best Song:
What Will Win: “We Belong Together”, Toy Story 3
What Should Win: “We Belong Together”, Toy Story 3
Possible Upset: “If I Rise”, 127 Hours

Best Makeup:
What Will Win: The Wolfman
What Should Win: The Wolfman
Possible Upset: None

Best Animated Short:
What Will Win: Day and Night
What Should Win: Day and Night
Possible Upset: The Gruffalo
The Gruffalo has massive support… could it catch up and beat Pixar?

Best Documentary Short:
What Will Win: Strangers No More
What Should Win: ?
Possible Upset: Poster Girl
Poster Girl is about an Iraqi soldier, but Strangers No More is about hope for peace in the Middle East. I find it more timely and deem it the more likely winner.

Best Live-Action Short:
What Will Win: Na Wewe
What Should Win: ?
Possible Upset: Wish 143
Wish 143 is about a young man dying of cancer… but Na Wewe is set in Burundi and deals with the horrors of African rebels. Also, it was written by someone who lived through it. Seems like the one people would vote for even if they hadn’t seen it.

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~ by russellhainline on February 23, 2011.

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