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Need Help in Your Oscar Pool? Here are my 2013 Academy Award Predictions

Despite the inevitable conclusion to this year’s awards season, I get excited for the Oscars every year. The Academy Awards bring about great opportunity for cinephiles to win a little extra money in Oscar pools at the office or among friends. Need help? You’ve come to the right place. I’ve gotten minimum 70% every year since tracking the Oscars, and I’m hoping to nail even more this go around. Follow my picks– I won’t lead you astray.

A FEW HELPFUL HINTS:

1. Put Argo for any technical category that you’re not sure of. It is the most beloved film, the clear Best Picture front-runner, and it could pull off surprising victories due to its overall love. I’d be very surprised if Best Editing doesn’t go its way.

2. The Academy is mostly old white men. Pick films to win that old white men would like and be comforted by. Silver Linings Playbook is about a gorgeous sexy young woman who throws herself repeatedly at an older man who is mean to her at every turn, and as a result, having this sexy younger woman around helps cure the older man’s mental illness. This makes old white men feel good. Other movies that will make old white men feel good: Lincoln (we freed the slaves!), Anna Karenina (if our wives leave us, they will be punished!), and Les Miserables (we love historical theater!).

3. When in doubt for an acting category, pick the SAG winner. Actors make up the highest percentage of the Academy, and the safest bets tend to be the actors who win the SAGs. Spoilers will happen… but if you’re putting money, it’s hard to bet against a SAG winner.

4. The best place to catch people sleeping? The sound awards and the short film awards. While generally I advocate picking one film for both sound awards, the “live performance” aspect of Les Miserables was so ballyhooed that I’d be shocked if it doesn’t take Best Mixing. While it’s unlikely that people will miss Paperman, as it showed in theaters before Wreck-It Ralph, Curfew is a general consensus favorite for Best Live Action Short. Best Documentary Short often goes to the most dire subject– Inocente, about a homeless immigrant, is well-liked and timely, but Open Heart tackles Rwandan children needing life-or-death surgery. Feels like the best bet.

Below is my full list.

Best Picture
“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

WINNER: Argo

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Lincoln

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman in “Les Misérables”
Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master”
Denzel Washington in “Flight”

WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis

POSSIBLE SPOILER: None

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour”
Quvenzhané Wallis in “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts in “The Impossible”

WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Emmanuelle Riva

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin in “Argo”
Robert De Niro in “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones in “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz in “Django Unchained”

WINNER: Tommy Lee Jones

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Neck-and-neck with Robert DeNiro

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in “The Master”
Sally Field in “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway in “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt in “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver in “Silver Linings Playbook”

WINNER: Anne Hathaway

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Probably none, but a slim prayer for Sally Field

Best Director
“Amour” Michael Haneke
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” Benh Zeitlin
“Life of Pi” Ang Lee
“Lincoln” Steven Spielberg
“Silver Linings Playbook” David O. Russell

WINNER: Steven Spielberg

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Ang Lee

Best Original Screenplay
“Amour” Written by Michael Haneke
“Django Unchained” Written by Quentin Tarantino
“Flight” Written by John Gatins
“Moonrise Kingdom” Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
“Zero Dark Thirty” Written by Mark Boal

WINNER: Amour

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Neck-and-neck with Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Argo” Screenplay by Chris Terrio
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
“Life of Pi” Screenplay by David Magee
“Lincoln” Screenplay by Tony Kushner
“Silver Linings Playbook” Screenplay by David O. Russell

WINNER: Argo

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Lincoln

Best Animated Feature
“Brave” Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
“Frankenweenie” Tim Burton
“ParaNorman” Sam Fell and Chris Butler
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits” Peter Lord
“Wreck-It Ralph” Rich Moore

WINNER: Wreck-It Ralph

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Frankenweenie

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
“Amour” Austria
“Kon-Tiki” Norway
“No” Chile
“A Royal Affair” Denmark
“War Witch” Canada

WINNER: Amour

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Probably none, but a slim prayer for No

Best Documentary Feature
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”

WINNER: Searching for Sugar Man

POSSIBLE SPOILER: The Gatekeepers

Best Achievement in Cinematography
“Anna Karenina” Seamus McGarvey
“Django Unchained” Robert Richardson
“Life of Pi” Claudio Miranda
“Lincoln” Janusz Kaminski
“Skyfall” Roger Deakins

WINNER: Life of Pi

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Skyfall

Best Achievement in Costume Design
“Anna Karenina” Jacqueline Durran
“Les Misérables” Paco Delgado
“Lincoln” Joanna Johnston
“Mirror Mirror” Eiko Ishioka
“Snow White and the Huntsman” Colleen Atwood

WINNER: Anna Karenina

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Mirror Mirror

Best Achievement in Film Editing
“Argo” William Goldenberg
“Life of Pi” Tim Squyres
“Lincoln” Michael Kahn
“Silver Linings Playbook” Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
“Zero Dark Thirty” Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

WINNER: Argo

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Achievement in Makeup & Hair Design
“Hitchcock”
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
“Les Misérables”
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

WINNER: The Hobbit

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Les Miserables

Best Achievement in Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”

WINNER: Anna Karenina

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Life of Pi

Best Original Score
“Anna Karenina” Dario Marianelli
“Argo” Alexandre Desplat
“Life of Pi” Mychael Danna
“Lincoln” John Williams
“Skyfall” Thomas Newman

WINNER: Life of Pi

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Lincoln

Best Original Song
“Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted”
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”

WINNER: Skyfall

POSSIBLE SPOILER: None

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

WINNER: Life of Pi

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
“Argo”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

WINNER: Les Miserables

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Argo

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

WINNER: Life of Pi

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Probably none, but a slim chance for The Hobbit

Best Animated Short Film
“Adam and Dog”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head Over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare”
“Paperman”

WINNER: Paperman

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Adam and Dog

Best Live Action Short Film
“Asad”
“Buzkashi Boys”
“Curfew”
“Death of a Shadow”
“Henry”

WINNER: Curfew

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Death of a Shadow

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Inocente”
“King’s Point”
“Mondays at Racine”
“Open Heart”
“Redemption”

WINNER: Open Heart

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Inocente

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~ by russellhainline on February 20, 2013.

One Response to “Need Help in Your Oscar Pool? Here are my 2013 Academy Award Predictions”

  1. Some interesting predictions here, mate. For me, it seems highly unlikely that the academy – filled with the 60+ white men like you suggest, will vote in favour of Wreck-It Ralph. As much as I liked that film, I doubt it has the same residence with that strata of the public.

    I’ll be super disappointed to see SLP get anything. It’s a good film but, unfortunately, in every single category it’s in contention for, it always comes third of fourth best, in my opinion.

    Here’s my two cents:
    http://theframeloop.com/2013/02/19/podcast-oscars-academy-awards-film/

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